Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay

A new MRP poll has indicated that the Green Party of England and Wales is on track to win Bristol Central at the next general election. The latest figures, from a Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now poll conducted for the Mirror suggests that the Green Party’s co-leader Carla Denyer will become an MP by unseating Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire.

MRP polls have a much larger sample size than traditional polls. They are also used to map data onto individual constituencies with weighting for local demographics. As a result, they are able to give projections as to what voting intention might look like on a seat-by-seat level.

According to the new MRP poll, the Greens are projected to pick up 52% of the vote in Bristol Central compared to Labour’s 39%.

Bristol Central is one of the four seats the Green Party has said it is targeting at the next general election. The constituency is new, having been established as part of the most recent round of boundary changes. It largely replaces the old Bristol West constituency, where the Greens came second in the 2015 and 2019 general elections.

The poll also indicates that the Green Party is also set to hold the only parliamentary seat it has an MP in – Brighton Pavilion. Caroline Lucas us the current MP there, but will be standing down at the next election. The Greens’ former co-leader Siân Berry is standing to replace her.

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