Greens: It’s time to hunker down
This week, the Green parties of the UK will likely pass 70,000 members. That’s no mean feat. But it will mean little if those people don’t kick into gear and focus their efforts over the next few weeks.
Specifically, Greens have to achieve four things, in the following order.
First, and most importantly, Caroline Lucas must be re-elected. If she isn’t, it’ll be a disaster for the party, setting it back a decade at least. Labour know that. They are throwing everything they can at the seat. They hate nothing more than the danger of a good example. On a universal swing alone, Caroline will lose the seat: Greens are up by around 4% since 2010, but Labour are up by about 6%. Add to that the difficulties faced by the local council, and there is a genuine risk of her losing the seat.
If I’m honest, I think she will win, but I only think that because I trust that huge numbers of Greens will swamp the seat in the few weeks remaining. I was there over Easter weekend. I found lots of Labour/Green switherers I was able to convince. What scares me is the number who were out, who need someone else to go to their door next weekend.
Second, Caroline must win by a stonking great margin. If she only wins narrowly, then we will all have to spend 2020 travelling to Brighton again, a decade after we first won there, working hard to ensure we hold the seat again. If she gets a majority of more than 10%, then every other party will give up on the seat. And that will mean that we can focus energy on new ventures.
Third, we have a chance in Bristol West if we set our minds and our time to it. Getting a second MP this time around would deliver huge momentum for the party and, I suspect, put us on a level pegging with UKIP (I doubt they’ll win more than two). This will require a huge mobilisation of the party – from pretty much everyone for whom it’s quicker to get to Bristol than Brighton.
Fourth, we need to come second in as many as possible of our other target seats. If we do, we have a good chance of taking them next time. We have a good chance of breaking out of he margin and becoming a significant force in British politics. If we don’t, it’ll be ten years at least before we can expect to expand significantly. And none of the crises our society faces can wait that long for a much more powerful Green voice to be heard.
There is a time to be over excited and a time to hunker down; a time to spread your energies and a time to focus. First Past the Post is an unjust system. Despite this, Greens can win seats in it: but only if we hunker down, only if we focus. We could between us pour thousands of person hours into seats where we have no chance of getting more than 5% in the hope of saving a deposit. But having Caroline Lucas in parliament is worth every deposit in the country. Putting us in a position to win a target seat in 2020 is worth thousands of votes spread across seats we can’t win for a generation.
We all like to dream. Now is not the time for dreaming. Now is the time for hard-nosed electioneering. In a month, we could have lost our only MP. Or we could have doubled our representation in parliament and lined ourselves up for a massive expansion in 2020. Which of those it is won’t depend upon the press office or the online team. It’ll be a result of leaflets delivered, doors knocked, and data entered in key target seats. That’s something which only we, the broader membership, can deliver.
It’s time to hunker down. Find a time you can get to Brighton Pavilion, Bristol West, Norwich South, Edinburgh East, or another target seat. Go there. Help out. We have just over three weeks.
Ed, I honestly think that is just coincidence. I always expected the Green percentage to come down when the election approaches, because to so many people it looks like a wasted vote in an election where they vote may make a difference because it is tight. Don’t forget, our vote in 2010 was down on 2005. That the Green share in opinion polls went down in February is also no big surprise as it went up so much in January when whether the Greens are part of the debate was extensive (and positive) news.
In fact it is something many people even remember now, whereas I have never heard ‘that interview’ when speaking about the Greens to friends and colleagues. (In fact, I more hear that Natalie was only so-so in the debate itself, clearly overshadowed by Sturgeon.)
3% looks about right to me – and I’d be happy with a trippling of the vote. (And I think Caroline will be easily re-elected). If you think that having her as leader everything would be better, then you overlook the sterling and excellent work that Natalie has done over the last few years – something that Caroline could not have done because the day only has 24 hours.
I’m sorry, Christian, but I cannot agree with you. If you look at all the polls, the Green Party’s support was increasing rapidly up to the time of Natalie’s horrendous performances. With a good, confident and convincing presence on television and radio that support would have carried on increasing because the message of the Greens is inherently positive and sensible.
It is tempting to see a change in trend (here: reverse of Green rise) and an event and say ‘that’s what caused it’!
But unlike us here most people pay little attention to politics most of the time, so I would normally be very careful.
And in this case even more so. I have not seen or heard anything that what people associate with the Green Party has changed, e.g. that they are now suddenly seen as far less competent than before. And we also know, from UKIP and the LibDems in the past too, that exposure has a positive effect for smallish parties, and in January the Greens got unprecedented exposure which was not sustained in February. And that in my view explains the Green polling situation much better than a local radio interview.
But you are of course right that Natalie’s TV and radio performances have not be stellar. And I also agree that better TV and radio performances should likely have lead to (slightly) better polling. But I think you overlook that Natalie has played a big role in getting the party to where it is. For example, she’s an excellent speaker in public meetings, and her support for local parties across the country has surely been one of the factor in the rise of Green party membership and activism. (And, as said before, Caroline could not have done this because she’s too busy as an MP.)
And saying that Natalie has done great to get us where we are but we now need to ditch her for a more telegenic leader is guaranteed to bring the party down to where it was 20 years ago.
Personally, I think it’s all too late. The damage has already been done. The Greens have been sliding down in all the polls ever since Natalie Bennett’s disastrous performances in the media. In the leaders debate she was nervous and unconvincing; also for me, and probably for many people, her voice and accent grate horribly. I predict that the Greens will get about 3% of the vote and that Caroline Lucas will lose her seat or perhaps just retain it by a tiny majority. If she were the leader of the party instead of Natalie, everything would be very different, but sadly that is not the case.
8th May is not the end, but the very beginning. It is the day when people can see MPs being elected on 30% of votes with the runner-up with 29%. It is the day when 70% of our votes will be wasted.
Democracy should be simple. If a party gets 10% of the votes country-wide; it should equal 10% of seats in Parliament. It means EVERY vote count and there will be no such thing as a wasted vote. Or “Vote Green and get Tory” threats.
That will be the day for the start of “The Quiet Revolution”.
By voting for who you believe in you are screwing up First Past the Post and exposes its as true undemocratic.
Yep, exactly. Sadly, I posted something very similar to this on Facebook the other day and a number of people got quite upset at me.
The reality is that the First Past the Post system forces us to concentrate our efforts if we want any chance of getting Greens elected. A more proportional system will blow that wide open, but for now, we need to pile in to our target seats and put the work in – as you say.