Wales Green Party leader Anthony Slaughter

YouGov’s latest poll of voting intention for the next Senedd election is out. Among the findings, the survey suggests the Green Party could be on track to win its first ever seat in the devolved parliament.

The poll has support for Labour at 41 per cent in the constituency vote. Plaid Cymru and the Tories trail behind on 19 and 18 per cent respectively, with Reform UK on 8 per cent and the Lib Dems on 6 per cent.

The Senedd is elected with a regional top-up vote too. On YouGov’s figures, Labour currently sit on 34 per cent in the regional vote.

Plaid are second on the top-up too, on 20 per cent. The Tories are third on 16 per cent, with Abolish the Welsh Assembly in fourth on 9 per cent. Below them, the Lib Dems, Reform UK and the Greens are all on 6 per cent.

According to polling aggregator Stats for Lefties, this would lead to the following result if these numbers were repeated in an election to the Welsh Parliament:

  • Labour – 30 seats
  • Plaid Cymru – 13 seats
  • Tories – 9 seats
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly – 5 seats
  • Reform UK – 1 seat
  • Liberal Democrats – 1 seat
  • Green Part 1 seat

That result would be historic. It would not only mean that there would be more parties in the Welsh Parliament than ever before, it would also see the Green Party enter the devolved body for the first time since it was created.

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