Poll suggests Scottish Greens will win 10 seats in Holyrood
According to a new poll, the Scottish Green Party could win 10 seats in Holyrood next year, with the SNP achieving a greater majority than they did in 2011.
The TNS poll, which sampled 1031 adults aged 16+ throughout Scotland over the period 13-30 May, found that 10% of people in Scotland intended to vote for the Greens on the regional list vote, up from 4% in 2011. This would result in 10 Green MSPs, as shown in the graphic above (from ScotlandVotes.com). The list vote had the SNP at 50%, followed by Labour at 19%, the Conservatives at 14%, the Liberal Democrats at 5%, and UKIP at 2%.
In the constituency contests, the SNP polled at 60% (up from 45% in 2011), Labour at 19% (down from 32%), Conservatives at 15% (14% in 2011), and the Liberal Democrats at 3% (8% in 2011). The Greens do not typically take part in constituency contests (although Patrick Harvie will be standing in Glasgow Kelvin next year).
Overall, these figures would result in 73 SNP MSPs, 25 from Labour, 17 Conservatives, 10 Greens and 4 Liberal Democrats.
Last month’s Westminster election shows the dangers of over-reliance on pre-election polling, and it is important to remember that the only poll that matters will be the one on election day (in this case, Thursday, 5 May 2016). With that in mind, this poll shows that Greens can do very well in Scotland next year, and increase their representation in Holyrood to unprecedented levels. This will allow them to hold the SNP to account, and act as a voice for a greener, fairer Scotland.