I posted on twitter earlier today that I’m going to make an election prediction. I’ve been pretty sure about this since the Tories launched their moronic ‘I’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS’ poster – or, as I like to call it, the ‘will we cut the NHS? won’t we? How lucky do you feel?”.

Obviously this is foolish. No one should ever make a prediction which can so easily be proved wrong. Especially when, of the likely outcomes, the result I expect is the one I want.

But now is the time to be brave and make my call. Here are my ten tweets from earlier, explaining why:

  1. #reasonsBrownwillstayon#1: Tories have no narrative. Their only message “change” is now driving ppl to Clegg.
  2. #reasonsBrownwillstayon#2 (for those who aren’t geeks) Tories need a clear lead over Lab and Libs to win most seats. They don’t have it.
  3. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #3 the final debate is on economy. Most ppl agree w/ him, but don’t know it yet. The whole Lab narrative’s about this.
  4. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #4 The Tories are flailing. If they kept calm & carried on, they had a chance. Osborne’s panic has mixed their messages.
  5. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #5 Clegg is lining up for a deal with him. All the slagging is clearly about negotiating position.
  6. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #6 talk of Clegg demanding his scalp is balls Why wld they want that over policies they can talk about in 2014?
  7. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #7 foreign policy is as good as it gets for Tories – defense & EU was their whole 2001 campaign.
  8. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #8 the Murdoch media has focused it’s attacks on Clegg, but doesn’t reach most LDs. Brown is escaping.
  9. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #9 no one cares about the deficit or gold sale. Tory activists don’t realise this.
  10. #reasonsBrownwillstayon #10 in a close election, it comes down to the managers. The Dark Lord vs Boy George. We all know who wins that.