The stats behind the Green breakthrough at the 2024 election
In May 2015, the Green Party achieved their best result up to that point. Yet even though its aggregate vote rose overall, the party’s electoral coalition remained much as it had for the previous few decades: rural, southern, white and middle class. Two years later, this traditional ecologist coalition disintegrated. After a failed attempt to revitalise it, the Greens moved on to building a more durable electoral coalition. In the aftermath of the 2024 election, it is very clear that they have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.
The breakthrough
Starting in 2021, the Greens began to make impressive gains in local government as Keir Starmer pushed Labour to the right. Between 2020 and 2024, the Greens increased their total councillors from 374 to 846 (+472). The party now leads a record 11 councils.
More importantly, the composition of the Greens’ councillor base was transformed. Prior to the 2021 elections, the Greens had only 99 seats on local authorities led by Labour. After the 2024 elections, the number of Greens on those same councils has risen to nearly 300.
In short, even before the 2024 general election, the Greens’ success in urban left-leaning areas was clear. But few expected it to show up in the 2024 election. They were wrong.
The Green Tide
When the election was called, the Greens were likely nervous. With Brits desperate to vote the Tories out, there was reason to believe that Green polling (5.6%) would collapse as it had in 2015, 2017 and 2019. But it did not. On election day, 1.9 million people in Britain cast a ballot for a Green (6.9%), exceeding pre-campaign polls by 1.3pts.
More notably, despite multiple pollsters and MRPs predicting that the party would be wiped out entirely, the Greens held onto Brighton Pavilion by a landslide margin and added three new seats to their tally: North Herefordshire (from the Tories), Waveney Valley (from the Tories), and Bristol Central (from Labour).
A coalition remade
In 2024, the Greens won 800,000 more votes than in 2015 (+3pts). This might seem like a modest advance. But beneath the surface, the Greens had remade their electoral base.
Ideology
In 2015, the Green electoral coalition was heavily dependent on centrists. A whopping 48% of their supporters had voted Liberal Democrat or for David Cameron’s Tories in 2010, with just 15% for Labour under Gordon Brown (16% voted Green).
By 2024, the Green base had shifted firmly to the left. 45% of the Greens’ 2024 supporters voted for Corbyn’s Labour in 2019, with just 2 in 10 voting Lib Dem (8%) or Tory (14%).
Geography
In 2015, a majority of Green votes came from rural constituencies, and it won 5% in the south (excluding London) compared to just 3% in the north. Its strongest counties were mostly southern and rural.
Yet in 2024, a majority of Green votes came from urban seats, and their vote in the south (7%) matched their vote in the north (7%).
At county level, its results were transformed. Just three of its top 10 county results were southern counties; meanwhile Merseyside (9.3%), South Yorkshire (8.2%) and Greater Manchester (7.9%) saw enormous surges in Green support.
Demographics
In 2015, the Green electoral coalition was not diverse. They did slightly better amongst 18-24s and renters, but overall their vote share was pretty even. They polled higher with white voters (4%) than people of colour (3%), while performing as well with social renters (3%) as those who own their home (2%). Their best results, meanwhile, were found mainly in white and/or rural constituencies. Amongst rural voters, they 4% – urban voters, 3%.
In 2024, their electoral base is stunningly different. Green support amongst 18-24s is now a whopping 20% (+12pts vs 2015), while support amongst people of colour (11%) is higher than amongst white Brits (6%). Support with social renters (8%) is twice that of homeowners (4%), while support in urban areas (9%) is almost double that of rural areas (5%).
Efficiency
In 2015, the Greens did not exceed 10% with any demographic. Even amongst 18-24s, their best demographic, they got just 9%. This broad support cost them in terms of seats: they fell massively short in every seat aside from two, and received over 10% in just 18 seats.
In 2024, the Green vote was substantially more efficient. Despite receiving only 800,000 more votes than in 2015, the party’s vote is now far more clustered. In 2024 they received over 10% of the vote in 108 seats (up from 18 in 2015), and received over 20% in 15 seats (up from only 2 in 2015).
The major reason for this increased vote efficiency is that the Green vote is no longer broad, but concentrated amongst particular demographics – and as a result, it saw big increases in vote share in constituencies where these groups are over-represented.
Conclusion
Just over a decade ago, the Greens passed a key resolution at their party conference. The motion aimed to amend the party’s core values (its ‘Philosophical Basis’) to shift it fully to the left, deleting a passage that blamed all humanity for climate change, and instead shifting the blame for global warming onto capitalism specifically and calling for left-wing policies.
Ten years down the line, the Greens have fully embraced those values. As the broken and defeated Labour Left has hesitated and hidden itself away, the Greens have moved into the space once occupied by Corbynism.
In 2024, the Greens were rewarded for their shift to the Left with incredible electoral results far beyond their wildest dreams: four seats in Parliament, and almost 2 million votes. If I was to offer advice to the Green leadership, it would be this: keep it up.
Image credit: Matthew Philip Long – Creative Commons
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